Political Primer from Minnesota

Much has happened since you last received The Public Affairs Pilot from Weber Johnson Public Affairs. Let’s start with the open race for Governor. It’s rated as a toss-up by people that rate these things.

The Republican Party convened April 30 to endorse its candidate for Governor. Former House Minority Leader Rep. Marty Seifert was defeated in two ballots by Rep.Tom Emmer. Emmer, a self-proclaimed “hockey dad” was endorsed by his friend Sarah Palin just prior to his victory. Exactly what role that endorsement played in Emmer’s win is a matter of speculation. But it does help you understand the political make-up of the convention body and the philosophy of Emmer, who became the candidate of the Tea Party even though Seifert’s conservative credentials were solid. And Seifert’s gracious concession and unqualified endorsement of Emmer made for the most unified Minnesota GOP in decades. This is significant since both candidates agreed to abide by the party endorsement and not bring a challenge in the August Primary, giving Emmer a clear shot at the Democrats all summer long and into the fall campaign season.

The Democrat-Farmer-Laborites’ —we’ll just call them Democrats from now on— their situation is a little messier. Minneapolis Mayor R. T. Rybak made a strong effort but ultimately came up short against House Speaker Margaret Anderson-Kelliher. In the end, R. T.’s considerable charisma, political base, fundraising base and solid liberal credentials were not enough to overcome the power of the sitting Speaker of the House. The Speaker, however, does not enjoy the luxury of the cleared field in the August Primary where she will face two self-funded and formidable opponents in former House Minority/Majority Leader Matt Entenza and former U.S. Senator Mark Dayton. Dayton has near 100% name ID and is very popular among Seniors, a key voting block in a Democrat primary. Entenza is spending freely and has already been on the airwaves with heavy TV buys. Both men chose to forgo the endorsing convention, taking their campaign straight to the Primary. Anderson-Kelliher will have all the resources of the state Democrat Party at her disposal, but will also have to deal with a contentious state budget situation (more on that later) that could keep her off the campaign trail, pre-occupied with her duties as Speaker. (Many Minnesota pols wondered why she didn’t resign the Speakership when she announced for Governor months ago.)

We’re not here to predict any outcomes to this race. We can share with you a recent KSTP-TV poll that shows Tom Emmer with a slight lead over all Democrat challengers. And we would be remiss to not point out that there is an Independence Party candidate on the ticket in former Republican Senate Staffer and local businessman Tom Horner. Horner, for now, appears to be appealing more to Democrats than Republicans.

It can certainly be argued that a spirited primary on the Democrat side can be a positive thing as they keep the spotlight off the Republican Emmer. Then again, the eventual Democrat nominee could enter the general election campaign mortally wounded from the “spirited” primary. Like most things in politics, the likely answer is: it depends.

One major issue that will help answer that question is the condition of the state budget. Last Friday, May 7, the Minnesota Supreme Court ruled in the 4-3 decision that the Governor’s budget balancing unallotments of 2009 were done outside of his authority as Governor. Oops! With a stroke of a pen, the 2010 Minnesota budget deficit went from a very manageable $500 million to over $3 billion; all this with a May 17 end-of-session deadline looming.

We’ll have an update on this and more Minnesota news later this week.